Strong Earthquakes Recurrence Times of the Southern Thessaly, Greece, Fault System: Insights from a Physics-Based Simulator Application

The recurrence time, T r , of strong earthquakes above a predefined magnitude threshold on specific faults or fault segments is an important parameter, that could be used as input in the development long-term fault-based Earthquake Rupture Forecasts (ERF). amount observational time data per segment often limited, due to long duration stress rebuilt and shortage earthquake catalogs. As consequence, application robust statistical models difficult implement with precise conclusion, concerning its variability. Physics-based simulators are powerful tool overcome these limitations, provide much longer records than historical instrumental A physics-based simulator, which embodies known physical processes, applied Southern Thessaly Fault Zone (Greece), aiming insights about behavior M w ? 6.0 six major study area. build model made by compiling geometrical kinematic parameters network from available seismotectonic studies. simulation implemented through algorithm multiple times, series different free parameters, order conclude simulated catalog showed best performance respect data. detailed examination 254 reported reveals both single segmented ruptures can realized Results analysis interevent times evidence quasi-periodic better Brownian Passage Time (BPT) renewal comparison Poissonian behavior.